March 26, 2023
Weekly outlook, 28 Nov – 2 Dec. 
Hot Forex Review
Weekly Outlook

Weekly outlook, 28 Nov – 2 Dec. 

The last NFP of 2022! 

After a shortened and light week that we had because of the Thanksgiving holidays, the week ahead will be a huge week with too many events and news to watch closely. With US NFP numbers we can guess what we have to expect from the next Fed meeting, Chinese PMI informs us about the latest state of China’s economic growth and the OPEC meeting will clarify the situation of the oil market for us.

1- China Official PMIs – Wednesday

COVID restrictions and commitment to Zero-COVID policy are expected to continue in the following months, therefore we expect to see the official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs tick lower in November, further into contraction territory. These weaker data will confirm that China’s economy will not be able to reach its growth estimates for 2022. Weaker economic data from China will increase the pressure on Yuan and related economies with China.

2- Eurozone inflation – Wednesday

Eurozone headline inflation is currently 10.6% annually, and it is expected to see some slowdown in the inflation growth pace towards 10.4%. In the past two months, energy prices decreased somehow, and supply chain disruptions have eased. However, this inflation is still so high, and with too many risks, the economy is also suffering. Therefore, this severe weakness of the economy in the Eurozone will prevent the central bank from moving towards very strict policies, which means that the Euro can slip back below parity against the USD.

3- US Personal Income & Spending – Thursday 

Inflation-adjusted personal spending is still raising and since we are getting closer to the New Year holidays, for November and December, the growth is expected to continue. While most of this growth is dependent on spending the credit cards and earlier savings, and income growth are not equal to inflation growth, for next year it will be hard to continue, unless inflation decreases rapidly and economic growth accelerates. Expected data must be positive for the US stock markets. 

4- OPEC+ meeting – Thursday & Friday

OPEC members are due to meet on the first day of December to set policy and the amount of output and supply. And then on the second day, they will make the final decision in consultation with non-member allies, called OPEC+. Also before the main meeting, OPEC+ will hold its Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting (JMMC) on November 30. And the Joint Technical Committee meeting (JTC) is scheduled for November 29.

5- US NFP Report – Friday

In the past six months, NFP report always was better than market estimates, but it was decreasing. After 390K newly created jobs in May, we saw a smooth decline, which respectively at 372K, 528K, 315K, 263K, and 261K until October, represents some signs of cracks in the labor market. July 528K report was an exception with seasonal adjustment. For November, we are expecting 200K non-farm payrolls and 0.3% slower growth of Average Hourly Earnings. Desired data can prevent the sharp growth of USD value.

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