March 26, 2023
Weekly Outlook, 10-14 October
Hot Forex Review
Weekly Outlook

Weekly Outlook, 10-14 October

Earnings Season kicking-off

We are going to start the Q3 earning season while speculations about Fed’s next move are getting more widespread. Analysts depend on different factors like employment, inflation, and economic growth, have different ideas. Usually, next weeks after NFP numbers are supposed to be quieter, but this week would not follow the tradition with US CPI and PPI, Fed minutes, UK employment, and the beginning of earnings season. Let’s review the most important event of the week with Ahura and the IFC markets.

1- IMF meeting – Across the week

This year’s annual meeting will take place in Washington D.C. in the US from 10-16 October. In the Annual Meetings of the Boards of Governors of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank Group (WBG), central bankers, ministers of finance and development, parliamentarians, private sector executives, representatives from civil society organizations, and academics will get together to discuss current concerns and issues around the globe, including the world economic outlook, poverty eradication, economic development, and aid effectiveness. Press conferences and many other events focused on the global economy, international development, and the world’s financial system can cause short- and long-term market fluctuations. 

2- UK employment report & GDP – Tuesday & Wednesday

Average Earnings Index, Claimant Count & Unemployment Rate from the UK will be very important to watch to have better ideas of the healthy level of the British economy, especially after recent changes in the country’s highest leadership and management. The UK earnings Index is expected to increase by 5.9%, and the unemployment rate can stay unchanged at 3.6%. On Wednesday’s GDP front, after August and September’s missing estimates, the October figure is expected to remain flat at 0.2% and below the July high of 0.5%. With expected data, Sterling still will be under pressure.

3- US PPI and FOMC minutes – Wednesday

Two weeks after the FED meeting, we usually have the minutes, and now we are going to have more detail from the latest meeting of FOMC. Minutes usually provide information about US economic and financial condition, what members discussed, agreed upon, and outlooks. On the other hand, before Thursday’s key CPI numbers, the producer inflation numbers can tell us what we have to expect about consumer inflation in the next months, as well as a healthy level of the production cycle. After publishing minutes, the market could be so volatile, so be careful about your trades! 

4- US Consumer Price Index (CPI) – Thursday

Although we have a long way to tame inflation, CPI is still expected to slow down a bit, however, estimated data are so confusing and mixed! September monthly CPI is expected to rise by 0.2%, which is more than 0.1% in August, but on the annual scale, it must slow down to 8.1% from 8.3% seen in August. On the Core data, it must slow down to 0.5% in September from 0.6% seen in August, but the annual Core CPI in September is expected to rise by 6.5%, which is more than the 6.3% seen in August. These data can not help the idea of less hawkish policies, which is not in favor of stock markets.

5- Earnings report 

Q3 Earnings Season is kicking off this week, mostly with financial institutes. PepsiCo will report on Wednesday, and Taiwan Semiconductor on Thursday. Friday will be a busy day with important earnings reports from UnitedHealth Group, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo&Co, Morgan Stanley, and Citigroup. 

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